Comments on: “Flawed Computer Models”… Sound Familiar? http://www.black-and-right.com/2010/04/20/flawed-computer-models-sound-familiar/ Fri, 10 Feb 2012 04:19:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: aje http://www.black-and-right.com/2010/04/20/flawed-computer-models-sound-familiar/comment-page-1/#comment-47148 aje Wed, 21 Apr 2010 15:01:53 +0000 http://www.black-and-right.com/?p=37022#comment-47148 flawed volcano models are literally from the same guys who do the climate modeling for the intergovernmental panel on climate change. from the financial times "ban led by flawed computer models" (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1c05510c-4c13-11df-a217-00144feab49a.html): Decisions in the past week have been guided by computer models used by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre based at the Met Office... from the Met Office website (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20081216.html?zoneid=79048): Climate scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at University of East Anglia maintain the global climate record for the WMO from ipcc website (http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm) The IPCC is the leading body for the assessment of climate change, established by the UN and the WMO to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. flawed volcano models are literally from the same guys who do the climate modeling for the intergovernmental panel on climate change.

from the financial times “ban led by flawed computer models”
(http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1c05510c-4c13-11df-a217-00144feab49a.html):
Decisions in the past week have been guided by computer models used by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre based at the Met Office…

from the Met Office website (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20081216.html?zoneid=79048):
Climate scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at University of East Anglia maintain the global climate record for the WMO

from ipcc website (http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm)
The IPCC is the leading body for the assessment of climate change, established by the UN and the WMO to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences.

]]> By: The Machine http://www.black-and-right.com/2010/04/20/flawed-computer-models-sound-familiar/comment-page-1/#comment-47029 The Machine Tue, 20 Apr 2010 21:58:02 +0000 http://www.black-and-right.com/?p=37022#comment-47029 I called this a week ago. But, it was an easy call to make. These days, anything and everything represents chance for the <i><b>Its the End of the World As We Know It!™</i></b> crowd. "Never waste a good crisis"... I called this a week ago.

But, it was an easy call to make.

These days, anything and everything represents chance for the Its the End of the World As We Know It!™ crowd.

“Never waste a good crisis”…

]]> By: Igor http://www.black-and-right.com/2010/04/20/flawed-computer-models-sound-familiar/comment-page-1/#comment-47022 Igor Tue, 20 Apr 2010 21:39:57 +0000 http://www.black-and-right.com/?p=37022#comment-47022 GIGO - the models are only as accurate as the people programming them - if they don't understand the problem and HOW to solve it (the methodology involved), THE MODELS WILL BE SO MUCH GARBAGE. As we can see, they are far from accurate, hence the confusion. Also, when you diddle with the data to get results you <b>wish</b> you could get, the same output occurs - garbage. Add that to a blind faith in the people creating the models themselves, and you get an unhealthy reliance on one or two sources of information. Please remember, data is <i>unprocessed information</i>. What you do with data is useful, but the data itself just lies there... "There are lies, damned lies, and Statistics" - Samuel Clemens (Mark Twain) Seems to me that "Lucy, you got some 'splainin' to doooooo..." Heh. Igor GIGO – the models are only as accurate as the people programming them – if they don’t understand the problem and HOW to solve it (the methodology involved), THE MODELS WILL BE SO MUCH GARBAGE. As we can see, they are far from accurate, hence the confusion.

Also, when you diddle with the data to get results you wish you could get, the same output occurs – garbage.

Add that to a blind faith in the people creating the models themselves, and you get an unhealthy reliance on one or two sources of information. Please remember, data is unprocessed information. What you do with data is useful, but the data itself just lies there… “There are lies, damned lies, and Statistics” – Samuel Clemens (Mark Twain)

Seems to me that “Lucy, you got some ‘splainin’ to doooooo…”

Heh.

Igor

]]> By: Lazarus Long http://www.black-and-right.com/2010/04/20/flawed-computer-models-sound-familiar/comment-page-1/#comment-47019 Lazarus Long Tue, 20 Apr 2010 21:17:43 +0000 http://www.black-and-right.com/?p=37022#comment-47019 Has anyone done a comparison to the 1981 Mt. St. Helens event? Has anyone done a comparison to the 1981 Mt. St. Helens event?

]]> By: onewiseguy http://www.black-and-right.com/2010/04/20/flawed-computer-models-sound-familiar/comment-page-1/#comment-47003 onewiseguy Tue, 20 Apr 2010 19:07:13 +0000 http://www.black-and-right.com/?p=37022#comment-47003 Hmmmm, as a pilot, I've been wondering what they based their decisions on and was baffled by all the flight cancellations. Jet engines are built to withstand objects much bigger and more dangerous than ash. In addition, there are filters that clean the air allowed into the cabin so unless they were planning on flying directly into the center of the ash cloud and for prolonged periods I can't understand what the concerns were. In addition, the normal routes could be adjusted to fly farther south...they just fly over Iceland in order to have some place to land in the event of an emergency (in addition to it being the shortest route). It's nice to now know that they based their decisions on computer models...clears up my confusion. The fact that the computer models were flawed does not surprise me since the whole AGW scam is based on flawed computer models. Hmmmm, as a pilot, I’ve been wondering what they based their decisions on and was baffled by all the flight cancellations. Jet engines are built to withstand objects much bigger and more dangerous than ash. In addition, there are filters that clean the air allowed into the cabin so unless they were planning on flying directly into the center of the ash cloud and for prolonged periods I can’t understand what the concerns were. In addition, the normal routes could be adjusted to fly farther south…they just fly over Iceland in order to have some place to land in the event of an emergency (in addition to it being the shortest route). It’s nice to now know that they based their decisions on computer models…clears up my confusion. The fact that the computer models were flawed does not surprise me since the whole AGW scam is based on flawed computer models.

]]> By: Nicolas http://www.black-and-right.com/2010/04/20/flawed-computer-models-sound-familiar/comment-page-1/#comment-47002 Nicolas Tue, 20 Apr 2010 18:59:39 +0000 http://www.black-and-right.com/?p=37022#comment-47002 kind of like to the facts, when we say to actually disgusting and disturbing things, they say "la la la la la la la" kind of like to the facts, when we say to actually disgusting and disturbing things, they say “la la la la la la la”

]]>